Tokyo Forum Statement and Recommendation on Nuclear Proliferation

The final meeting of the Tokyo Forum for Nuclear Non-proliferation and
Disarmament, an international experts' forum initiated by the Japanese
government after nuclear tests by India and Pakistan last year, took
place in Tokyo on 23-25 July 1999. It released the following statement and
key recommendations.
Hiro Umebayashi
International Coordinator, PCDS/Executive Director, Peace Depot
3-3-1 Minowa-cho, Kohoku-ku, Yokohama, 223-0051 Japan
tel: 81-45-563-5101, fax: 81-45-563-9907

25 July 1999



A decade after the end of the Cold War, at the threshold of the 21st
Century, the fabric of international security is unravelling and
nuclear dangers are growing at a disturbing rate. Relations among
major powers are deteriorating. The United Nations is in political and
financial crisis. The global regimes to stop the proliferation of
nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction are under siege.
Acts of terror are taking an increasingly worrisome turn, with the
possible advent of sub-state groups armed with weapons of mass
destruction. Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan have shown that not
all countries share the view that the usefulness of nuclear weapons is
declining. Years of relentless effort have not eliminated the
clandestine weapons of mass destruction programs of the most
determined proliferators. The US-Russia nuclear disarmament Process is
stalled, with adverse consequences for the global disarmament agenda.
The situation in Asia is particularly fluid, portending negative
changes for disarmament and non-proliferation in coming years.

Unless concerted action is taken, and taken soon, to reverse these
dangerous trends, non-proliferation and disarmament treaties could
become hollow instruments. A renewed sense of commitment to both
non-proliferation and disarmament is urgently needed. We, the members
of the Tokyo Forum, have released this report to draw attention to
growing dangers and to propose remedial actions, both immediate and
for the longer term.

The Forum commends the initiative of the Japanese Government in
calling it into being and sustaining its work. We express the hope and
expectation that the Japanese Government will continue to play a
positive role in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. (end)

25 July 1999

1. Stop and reverse the unravelling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty regime by reaffirming the treaty's central bargain.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) demands
both disarmament and non-proliferation. The nuclear-weapon states must
demonstrate tangible progress in nuclear disarmament, while the
non-nuclear-weapon states must rally behind the treaty and take
stronger steps of their own, such as adopting improved Intemational
Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. To support the treaty's core bargain,
a permanent secretariat and consultative commission should be created
to deal with questions of compliance and to consider strengthening
measures for the treaty.
2. Eliminate nuclear weapons through phased reductions.
The world faces a choice between the assured dangers of proliferation
or the challenges of disarmament. The better choice is the progressive
reduction and complete elimination of nuclear weapons. No other cities
must be put through the devastation wrought by nuclear weapons and the
agony of recovering from their effects, endured by Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. Nuclear weapon states must reaffirm the goal of elimination
and take sustained, concrete steps towards this end.

3. Bring the nuclear test ban into force.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty must be ratified urgently by
those key states still holding out - the United States, Russia, China,
India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel. All states must respect a
moratorium on nuclear testing and pay their fair share of the treaty's
verification costs.

4. Revitalise START and expand the scope of nuclear reductions.
The Tokyo Forum calls on the United States and Russia to initiate new
comprehensive talks on nuclear arms reduction and security issues, to
combine the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II and III processes, and
to further extend reductions to 1,000 deployed strategic warheads. If
these treaties remain stalled, we call on both countries to pursue
parallel and verifiable reductions to that level. Verifiable
reductions and elimination should be extended to non-deployed and
non-strategic nuclear weapons. In addition, the Tokyo Forum calls on
China to join the United Kingdom and France in reducing and, in the
first instance, not increasing nuclear weapon inventories.

5. Adopt nuclear transparency measures.
Irreversible reductions in nuclear forces require great transparency.
The Tokyo Forum welcomes the transparency measures undertaken so far
by the nuclear-weapon states and calls on them to take steps to
increase transparency further. Recent transparency measures by the
United Kingdom and France have shed considerable light on their
nuclear weapons numbers and stocks. These could be further developed.
The United States has put in place many transparency measures
concerning its doctrines, deployments and technical developments. More
information on reserve stocks would have a positive impact on steps
towards nuclear disarmament. Russia has declared some aspects of its
nuclear weapons program. Russia could increase the degree of
transparency concerning doctrine, numbers of tactical nuclear weapons
and stocks of fissile material. China has put in place few
transparency measures. The implementation of further transparency
measures on the numbers and types of nuclear weapons and on the
amounts of fissile material should be encouraged in view of the
favorable regional and global impact.

6. Zero nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert.
The Tokyo Forum calls for all states with nuclear weapons to endorse
and implement the goal of zero nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert.
To this end, we call on the United States and Russia to immediately
stand down nuclear forces slated for reduction in START II. To
eliminate the risk of the millennium computer bug leading to an
accidental launch, all nuclear weapons in all states should be removed
from alert for the period of concern.

7. Control fissile material, especially in Russia.
We call on the United States to continue and to increase cooperative
threat-reduction efforts in the former Soviet Union. The world
community, especially the G8 states and the European Union, must
substantially expand cooperative threat-reduction efforts. We call for
the prompt conclusion of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. We further
call on China, India, Pakistan and Israel to declare moratoria on
producing fissile material for nuclear weapons. Nuclear-weapon states
should put all excess military stocks of fissile materials and civil
fissile materials under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.

8. Terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
The Tokyo Forum calls for regional and global cooperative efforts to
prevent weapons of mass destruction from falling into the hands of
extremist, fanatical or criminal groups.

9. Strengthen measures against missile proliferation.
The guidelines of the Missile technology Control regime need to be
strengthened. We call on all states, particularly North Korea, to
respect these guidelines, and for expanded participation in the MTCR.
The international community should explore realistic ways to control
and reverse missile proliferation, including global or regional
agreements drawing upon the provisions of the 1987 US-Soviet treaty on
Intermediate and Shorter-Range Nuclear Forces. A special conference of
concerned states should be convened to deal with the growing problem
of missile proliferation.

10. Exercise caution on missile defence deployments.
The Tokyo Forum recognises the uncertainties and complications missile
defence deployments could produce. Recognising the security concerns
posed by ballistic missiles, we call on all states contemplating the
deployment of advanced missile defences to proceed with caution, in
concert with other initiatives to reduce the salience of nuclear

11. Stop and reverse proliferation in South Asia.
In the near term, the Tokyo Forum calls on India and Pakistan to:
maintain a moratorium on nuclear testing; sign and ratify the
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty; support prompt negotiation of a
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty; adopt and properly implement nuclear
risk-reduction measures, suspend missile flight tests; confirm pledges
to restrain nuclear and missile-related exports; cease provocative
actions; and take steps to resolve the Kashmir dispute. In the long
term, we urge India and Pakistan to accede to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon states.

12. Eliminate weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
The Tokyo Forum recognises the linkage between the core objectives of
a Middle East that is peaceful and one free of weapons of mass
destruction (WMD). We call for: a revitalised Arab-Israeli peace
process, resumption of an effective WMD control regime for lraq under
UN Security Council auspices; restraint on missile and flight test
programs; effective and verifiable implementation of the Chemical
Weapons Convention and Biological Weapons Convention by all states in
the region; implementation of strengthened International Atomic Energy
Agency safeguards; and Israel's accession to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear weapon state.

13. Eliminate nuclear and missile dangers on the Korean Peninsula.
The Tokyo Forum urges all parties to redouble their efforts to achieve
the goal of a denuclearised Korean Peninsula as soon as possible. We
call for coordinated global efforts to maintain North Korea's freeze
on its graphite-moderated nuclear reactors and related facilities. All
nuclear weapon and missile-related activities in North Korea must
cease, including production and sale of WMD-capable missile
technology. We call for the full and effective implementation of the
1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea's full compliance with an
Intemational Atomic Energy Agency safeguards agreement, and its
adherence to the agency's strengthened safeguards system.

14. No vetoes in support of proliferation.
The Tokyo Forum calls on the UN Security Council to pass a resolution
declaring that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
constitutes a threat to international peace and security. Permanent
members of the Security Council have a special responsibility to
prevent proliferation. We call on them to refrain from exercising
their vetoes against efforts to assist or defend UN member states that
have become victim to the use or the threat of use of weapons of mass
destruction. All current and prospective permanent members of the UN
Security Council should have exemplary non-proliferation credentials.

15. Revitalise the Conference on Disarmament.
The Tokyo Forum calls on the Conference on Disarmament to revise its
procedures, update its work program and carry out purposeful work, or
suspend its operations. The consensus rule is causing perpetual
deadlock. Consensus among members of the Conference on Disarmament
should not be necessary to begin or conclude negotiations on a
multilateral convention.

16. Strengthen verification for disarmament.
The Tokyo Forum calls for widespread adoption of effective
verification measures. The scope of verification of nuclear
disarmament should be expanded to non-deployed nuclear weapons and the
dismantling of nuclear weapons. An effective verification protocol
should be agreed for the Biological Weapons Convention, and
implementation decisions weakening the verification regime of the
Chemical Weapons Convention should be stopped and reversed.

17. Create effective non-compliance mechanisms for nuclear
non-proliferation and disarmament.
The Tokyo Forum calls on all states seeking nuclear non-proliferation
and disarmament to actively support the development of arrangements
through which states in non-compliance with arms control treaties will
know not only that they will be caught, but also that they will face
serious consequences. The international community must be united and
unequivocal in its intended response to would-be violators based on a
broad consensus, including possible recourse to Chapter VII of the UN
Charter. A revitalised United Nations with a reformed and
authoritative Security Council is essential to building and
maintaining the support of the international community for the
effective enforcement of compliance. (end)