Guei, IBB, Abacha and the lesson of history

Guei, IBB, Abacha and the lesson of history
By Francis Obinor, Foreign Affairs Reporter
* Guei
* Babangida
* Abacha
AS uneasy calm returns to Cote d'Ivoire after the
swearing-in of the new president, Laurent Gbagbo and the government's vote
to probe the death of close to 200 Ivoiriens allegedly killed by the
gendermes, the Cote d'Ivoire's situation speak volumes in terms of impact
and lessons for Nigeria. The Cote'd Ivoire's situation indeed reminds one of
the days of General Ibrahim Babangida and late Sani Abacha who in their bids
for self-succession succeeded in ruining the economy and almost every social
fabric of the country.

It was through divine intervention that the country was
saved from another civil war even though many died during the longest
transition exercise ever embarked upon by their governments.
Ousted Ivoirien leader Robert Guei, before his fall through
a popular revolt last week, rode to power through coup like Babangida and
Abacha. However, in his self-succession bid, like the Nigerian duo, he
miscalculated and misjudged the feelings of the people even as he embarked
on the use of force to have his way.

Writing on Babangida's transition programme in The Guardian
On Sunday, January 31, 1999, Okey Ndibe, a former editor of African
Commentary and now a professor of English at Connecticut College in New
London, CT, U.S.A, blamed the ruins of Nigeria on Babangida and Abacha just
as he called a probe of the evil genius era.

Babangida's transition programme, in spite of being the
longest ever, coupled with shifting of handover dates during his eight-year
(1985-93) in power, ended up in jeopardy with the annulment of the June 12
presidential election won by late Chief Moshood Abiola.
The perceived hidden agenda of self-succession bid,
according to pundits, came to the fore when he annulled the presidential
election.
The effect of this move was devastating both internally and
externally, as a barrage of international sanction was imposed on Nigeria.
The violence and the intrasigence of the military government then brought
more chaos, sufferings and deaths upon many Nigerians. Till date, the
country is yet to recover from this terrible miscalculation and misjudgment.

In a hurried fashion, precisely on August 26, 1993,
Babangida "stepped aside" from the hot seat with the inauguration of a
three-month Interim National Government headed by Chief Ernest Shonekan,
bearing a clause within the set up for the ambitious Abacha to exploit.
Like the swaying hyena and the restless fox, Abacha did not
surprise many as he shoved aside the interim government and dismantled the
two political parties (SDP) and (NRC), thus beginning a new transition
programme.

The coming to power of Abacha on November 17, 1993 like
Guei's sacking of President Konan Bedie on December 24, 1999 and their
self-succession bids are not new in Africa, especially in the West African
sub-region.
Gambia's Yaya Jahmey, Guinea's Lansana Conte Burkina Faso's
Blaise Compaore, Ghana's Jerry Rawlings, Togo's Gnassingbe Eyadema are some
of the African military leaders who have perfected the strategy to shed the
uniform for the civilian regalia.
In a bid to do the same, Abacha left no stone unturned even
if it meant annihilating every opposition on his way. The casualties were
many among whom were Pa Alfred Rewane, Major General Shehu Musa Yar'Adua and
Kudirat Abiola,. Others were either detained, threatened or forced into
exile.

Abacha's constituency, the military, was not spared as
officers and men opposing his mission had a rough deal with him.
In spite of the various international sanctions and the
pariah status given to the country, Abacha remained defiant and was bent on
carrying out his horrendous mission.
This became glaring when the defunct five parties, United
Nigeria Congress Party (UNCP), Grassroots Democratic Movement (GDM),
Democratic Party of Nigeria (DPN), National Centre Party of Nigeria (NCPN)
and Congress for National Consensus (CNC) partly described by the incumbent
Minister of Justice Bola Ige as four fingers of a leprous hand all chose
Abacha as consensus candidate.
Not even the pro-democracy activists like Naitonal
Democratic Coalition, Eastern Mandate Union (EMU) Northern Youths for
Democracy (NYD) and Joint Action Committee of Nigeria (JACON) and
international isolation and sanctions could sway Abacha until his sudden
death on June 8, 1998.

Like Abacha, Guei who was not swayed by the UN, U.S. and EU
sanctions, he in his bid to succeeded himself went all out against all
opposition members even those he perceived among the army.
So, when gunshots were first heard on the streets of Abidjan
on December 24, 1999, the world was jolted by the shockwaves that
reverberated from a once peaceful country known for several decades as an
oasis of peace and prosperity.
Ever since then, the haven of peace has continued to witness
violence in unprecedented scale.
The foiled troop mutiny in July at the residence of the
former junta leader General Robert Guei and the backlash of the just-
concluded presidential election of October 22 with reported shooting at the
Aquado Barracks have shattered the country's stability, thus attracting the
world's attention.
Attempts to restore a civilian regime have nonetheless
orchestrated swirly orgy of violence leading to a declaration of a state of
emergency.

Cote d'Ivoire's stability had always been built on one of
the stronger economies in the West African sub-region which led it to be
regarded by Western powers as an important ally.
As the world's largest exporter of cocoa beans, the main
ingredient in chocolate, and also a major palm oil and coffee exporter, Cote
d'Ivoire since gaining independence from France in 1960 had its first coup
following months of tension between deposed President Henry Konan Bedie and
would-be challenger Alhassane Quattara.
With its 31 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from
agriculture (per capita $1,680), the growth rate of the economy is six
percent.

A recent slump in the price of cocoa worldwide has caused
serious economic difficulties with farmers protesting the hardship. This
downturn in addition since Guei made soldiers move strident and have
mutinied several times demanding more money.
The first revolt in March claimed the life of a soldier when
troops loyal to Guei put down the uprising. In July, another uprising
witnessed hundreds of soldiers taking to the streets for two days in Abidjan
and other cities in what looked like a successful attempt to oust Guei.
Guei's downfall (similar to that of Yugoslav ousted
President Slobadan Milosevic) began when he gave his intention to stand in
the civilian election.
This move not only drew the ire and strong criticisms from
France, the United States, Nigeria and South Africa, as well as from
Ivoirien politicians, but also became his albatross as he refused to heed
the call for a transparent and unbiased election.
The elections initially scheduled for September were
postponed till October by Guei who had already become the umpire and player.

Having disqualified Quattara, the key opponent contesting
the presidency with him on nationality grounds, Guei went ahead to alter the
constitution and even nominated members of the (CNE) electoral commission
led by Honore Guei to oversee the polls.
Although Quattara, a former Prime Minister has consistently
insisted that he is an Ivoirien, he was completely sidelined with other
members of his rally of the Republicans and former ruling Democratic Party
(PDCI-RDA).

Guei, who overstretched the honour and trust reposed in him
on September 18, said in a statement that he would not condone any form of
disorder. These statements followed an attempted move to kill him by some
dissident soldiers protesting his style of leadership.
In what appeared to be a clampdown on an invisible enemy,
Guei decided to sack two of his powerful generals n Lassana Palenfo and
Abduolaye Coulibaly n accusing them of planning the attack.
Both soldiers alongside others decided to seek haven at the
Nigerian Embassy in Abidjan to safeguard their lives having perceived the
unrelenting quest by Guei to exterminate all oppositions.
Aside splitting the army to suit his interests, Guei, called
the bluff of the U.S., EU, OAU and ECOWAS and sent out his soldiers to the
streets to look for money to prosecute the election. This move witnessed
uncanny experiences from Ivoirien market women and men who recounted their
ordeals in the hands of the Guei's soldiers.

Guei's request to Nigerian leader President Olusegun
Obasanjo to have Palenfo and Conclibaly back for trial was rebuffed, as
President Obasanjo insisted that Guei must step down before a fair and
transparent election could be held.
Since the death of Houphonet Boigny who led the country to
its independence 40 years ago, the rising tensions even after the ignoble
ousting of Guei have confirmed Cote d'Ivoire's transformation from a rare
African state with intolerant civilians, politics and a viable economy, into
a country where military activities hold sway.
Having barred Quattara and Bedie from the election, Guei was
left to fight the Presidency with five others with Laurant Gbagbo of the
Ivoirien Popular Front as his main challenger.
The sagging honour of Gue became apparent when Gbagbo took
early lead in the October 22 presidential poll. Dejected, sad and
unrelenting, Guei stopped further release of results, dissolved the
electoral body and declared himself winner the following day.

In order to perfect his game having failed to learn from
history of what befell late Mobutu Seseko of the Democratic Republic of
Congo (formerly Zaire), Emperor Bokassa of Central African Republic, Haile
Mengistu of Ethiopia and a host of others not forgetting Slobodan Milosevic
of Yugoslavia, Guei also declared a state of emergency to forestall mass
protest against his decision.
The spiral of events that ensued astounded him having
perceived his miscalculation of a possible back up by the army. The night
long shooting at the various barracks alongside street protests which
initially claimed nine lives in the first day, sent Guei to go underground
after despatching all members of his family to The Republic of Benin.
With Guei out of the scene, supporters of both Quattara and
Gbagbo are now at loggerhead thus deepening the political crisis.
Speaking on the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC),
Quattara said a fresh election to determine the best choice candidate by
Ivoiriens should be called.

This call was supported by United Nations Secretary General
Kofi Annan on Thursday night in New York in order to have a credible choice
of candidate.
In apparent move to forestall further clashes, Gbagbo who
got 52 percent of the total vote has called for a government of National
Unity, comprising Quattara and other party leaders in Cote d'Ivoire.
Acclaiming the ousting of Guei, former Minister of
Education, Professor Aliyu Babatunde Fafunwa, said "a time has come in the
life of a people when they must rise up as one to say no to dictatorship and
corruption.,
According to him: "Ivoiriens should be commended for taking
the Yugoslavian strategy in ousting their country's maximum leader, Robert
Guei.

The former minister said he was impressed by the Ivoiriens
in taking power into their hands to legitimately oust Guei, describing the
move as the greatest thing that had happened to democracy.
Nigeria's former envoy to the UN Ambassador Akporode Clark
who also supported Fafunwa's claim said the experience in Yugoslavia where
Milosevic was forced out of office by popular revolt had opened the eyes of
Africans to reject dictators in the continent.
"Yugoslavia has taught Africa that people's power is
important", he said.
He decried the attitude of some sit-tight African rulers who
only end up being disgraced out of office.
Speaking in this same view, Human Rights Africa (HRA)'s
Executive Director Nike Onasoga commended the Ivoiriens for taking up the
initiative in Africa to fight a recurring phenomenon in the continent.

"The chasing away of Gen. Guei is a signal to other
sit-tight, would-be rulers and latest coupists that Africa has come of age
and her people are no longer willing to settle for anything short of
accountable governance which is only guaranteed in a democracy", she said.
"Guei had the opportunity of learning from history by
midwifing a transparent and successful transition to democratic
administration. Common sense dictates that the general should have taken a
cue from the misadventures of tyrants and sit-tight generals like Gen. Sani
Abacha and Gen Ibrahim Babangida of Nigeria."
Analysts further said Guei should have become another
Abdulsalami Abubakar who left the stage when the ovation was loudest.
According to United Nations Information Centre Director in
Nigeria, Mr. Finjap Njinga, "UN will always support such popular revolts
anywhere in the world if taken in the interest of the people".

Babangida, not only commenced the ruination of Nigeria, he
made Abacha's reign possible. My suspicion is that Babangida did this
deliberately. For it was Abacha's rule that somehow rescued Babangida's
legacy from the well-earned reputation of the worst ruler our country ever
had.

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