Not since the Second World War has such tension
existed between Canada's interests and instincts
vis-à-vis the United States. Canada's interests are
closely aligned with those of the United States, but
its instincts are those of continental Europe.
That Canada and the U.S. differ is nothing new.
They agreed on the Soviet threat in Europe, and the
Korean and Persian Gulf wars; they disagreed over
Vietnam -- and now Iraq. Today's tensions are more
acute, however, because Canada's interests have
never tied it so closely to the U.S., while Canada's
instincts have never been so offended by U.S.
foreign policy.
Interests are bread-and-butter issues largely
about citizens' personal security and economic
well-being. Instincts are matters of values and
ambitions and of how countries want the world to be.
Interests and instincts -- or self-interest and
ideals, if you prefer -- are both important in
foreign policy. A democratic government that forgets
about either will eventually lose domestic support
for its foreign policy.
The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks made Americans
feel more vulnerable and more patriotic than ever.
Their world became Hobbesian: full of danger, with a
hidden enemy unlike any the U.S. had previously
faced. To this fresh danger was married a world-view
articulated in conservative enclaves of
universities, right-wing policy journals, of America
über alles,a country whose unmatched
supremacy should be more robustly reflected in its
foreign policy.
George W. Bush, as Republican Party presidential
candidate, argued that the United States should
avoid being dragged into fights all over the world.
Mr. Bush the candidate and Mr. Bush the President
have not talked much to each other. A charitable
interpretation would be that Sept. 11 educated him
to the new Hobbesian world. A less charitable one
would be that Mr. Bush knew little of the world on
entering the White House and, prodded by Sept. 11,
married his moralistic, evangelical convictions with
the world-view of hard-liners whom he appointed to
almost every senior administration position.
If there was one place that should have swallowed
its disappointment with this world-view, it was
Canada. Osama bin Laden put Canada on his hit list,
and terrorists have entered Canada en route to the
U.S. The interests of Canada and the U.S. are
identical in fighting terror.
Another interest is economic. Canada sends about
85 per cent of its exports to the United States.
Millions of jobs depend on access to that market.
Canada's No. 1 foreign policy objective after Sept.
11 was to keep open that border. The U.S. has a
legitimate concern about border security and must be
assured that Canada has met that concern.
So if foreign policy were only about interests,
Canada would urge even closer economic integration
(customs union? continental perimeter? harmonized
standards?) and would line up with every U.S.
foreign policy objective.
But foreign policy is also about instincts -- and
Canada's cannot be squared with those of the Bush
administration. Canada sees the world, as
modest-sized states do, in terms of influence; the
U.S. now sees the world almost exclusively in terms
of power. Robert Kagan, a conservative U.S. analyst,
observes that the U.S. is now Mars and Europe is
Venus -- as is Canada.
For centuries, large European countries saw the
world in terms of power, while the U.S., removed by
the Atlantic Ocean from conflict, thought in terms
of influence. The savage wars of 1914-1919 and
1939-1945 were the last gasp of Great Power military
conflicts in Western Europe. The collapse of the
Soviet Union ended the Cold War.
The Great Powers of Europe built up their
militaries to fight in Europe, or extend and protect
their empires abroad. Once the fighting bled Europe
and the empires imploded, only one reason remained
to keep up military spending. With the Cold War's
end, that reason evaporated.
Only the British and French retain some domestic
support for military spending -- to sustain their
illusion of remaining Great Powers and to intervene
in former colonies such as the Falklands or Sierre
Leone -- or, as the British are doing in what they
used to call Mesopotamia, now Iraq.
By contrast, the 2003 U.S. budget calls for
military spending of $379-billion (U.S.), roughly
what the next 20 countries will spend, according to
The Defence Monitor. The U.S. will spend six times
more than Russia, 12 times more than Britain, and 55
times more than Canada. Even as the U.S. military
budget carries all before it, U.S. governors are
forced to cut money for universities, schools,
welfare, and health care for the uninsured.
Mars may choose these priorities; the Venuses of
the world, including Canada, do not. The result is a
growing capability gap when power is needed. The gap
leads to U.S. scorn of those countries such as
Canada that it considers preachy but powerless.
Diplomatic setbacks before the Iraq invasion will
invite Americans to worry even less about support
from other countries.
Canada's instincts, by contrast, are those of a
modest-sized international player. They nudge Canada
toward solving world problems through international
laws, diplomacy, treaties and multilateralism.
Canada doesn't have any power, military or
otherwise, so how else would it see the world?
The instincts of the world's only superpower is
to use existing multilateral frameworks only if they
endorse what the U.S. had intended to do anyway. For
Canada, these frameworks are essential; for the
U.S., they are optional.
Europeans, now safely embedded in the enlarged
European Union, have put aside Great Power
rivalries, to become a series of medium- or
small-sized countries that do their work
multilaterally, through endless negotiation and
compromise.
They now extrapolate their domestic practices
onto the world (when the French President tells
Eastern European countries to "shut up,"
it's a reflex of Great Power pretensions). But, by
and large, the Europeans see the world more or less
as Canadians do, and as Americans do not.
But the Europeans have their own continent and
union. And they have size. They may be puny
militarily compared to the U.S., but their internal
market is greater. Canada's instincts may incline it
to Europe, but Canada can never go there. Worse for
Canada, transatlantic relations are at a record low.
The institutions that got Canada into Europe,
including NATO, were essentially U.S.-European.
Those relations are now so badly frayed, the entire
postwar institutional architecture may not last,
leaving Canada isolated from Europe and marooned
with the U.S.
Canada has a natural geographic partner: the
United States. But the disparities of country size
within North America have prevented political
integration and often thrown political obstacles in
the way of further economic integration. While the
communality of economic and security interests
should make Canada a closer partner of the U.S., and
supporter of its foreign policy, the reverse is
happening.
Canada has a budgetary surplus, the U.S. a
yawning deficit. Canada has slowed its tax cutting,
the Bush administration is accelerating them. Canada
is again expanding the role of government; the U.S.
continues to trim it, except in the military and
security spheres. Canada's domestic spending
priorities are more aligned with those of Europe
than the U.S., although Canada's fiscal position is
much stronger than the major countries of the
continent.
In foreign policy, Canada's instincts can't be
reconciled with those of the Bush administration.
Canadian conservatives may pound out editorials
seeking to recreate the Grand Alliance of
Anglo-Saxon countries that "won the war and
kept the peace" -- but this cannot be squared
with Canadian instincts.
Until governments change in either or both
countries, tensions between Canada's interests and
instincts vis-à-vis the U.S. will remain and
perhaps grow. Canada will pay for this -- but less
so if it can keep tensions in check, work
constructively on bilateral interests such as the
fight against terror, resist moral superiority, and
wait for international complexities to temper, as
they always have, the temptations of hubris.
jsimpson@globeandmail.ca
ALSO SEE "THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM AND US" by Jeffrey
Simpson